Covid tracker: When the UK will hit its third wave peak – date exposed as cases pass 50k

Boris Johnson discusses Stage 4 of roadmap out of lockdown

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Covid has swept the UK in two distinct waves since it entered the country in March last year, with deaths now in their hundreds of thousands. Despite mitigating restrictions, it remains a constant presence in public life, and England will shed these tomorrow. Public health experts have levelled a dire warning at the Government, stating cases could multiply out of control and approach the devastating six-figure mark every day.

When will the UK hit its third wave?

England is fighting 50,000 cases per day at present, and this infection figure is only increasing.

Effective tomorrow, ministers will ditch remaining mandatory Covid rules, including those on masks and social distancing.

Health professionals, statisticians and scientists have come together with grave predictions for the country’s future should they forge ahead with these plans.

They believe Covid cases could multiply to between 100,000 and 200,000 per day without mitigation.

The experts had concluded a third wave was “definitely underway” in the UK since June and expected it would peak in mid-summer.

Now, housing minister Robert Jenrick has confirmed the peak won’t hit for another month or so.

He told Sky News the third wave would infect the most people in the run-up to autumn.

Mr Jenrick said: “We won’t really expect this wave of the virus to peak until late August, maybe even early September.

“So there are going to be some quite challenging weeks ahead.”

Although the peak is theoretically some weeks off, the NHS is already struggling to cope.

Hospitalisations have markedly increased across the UK alongside cases.

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The week ending July 11 saw admissions increase by 61 percent, and the overall rate now sits at 4.43 per 100,000 people.

The rate translates to roughly 2,000 people ensuring a hospital stay.

Professor Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, said this could double or quadruple in the days and weeks to come.

He said the country is “not by any means out of the woods yet” despite the impending “Freedom Day”, and hospitalisations could reach 10,000 and above.

The third wave could also see a more protracted battle with Covid, placing unprecedented strain on health services.

Professor Graham Medley, who chairs the SAGE affiliated Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), said caseloads wouldn’t recede amid ministerial reluctance to reimpose lockdown.

He told BBC Radio 4 this would result in a “long and disseminated” natural peak this time around.

Even without sky-high numbers, he said, the third wave peak could last “several weeks”.

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